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Here’s my New Year’s resolution: Next time I hear some doomsday prophet touting the next big food shortage – which always happens to be about something people love, like chocolate, and never about something we could care less about, like oatmeal cookies – I’m just going to ignore it. These dire predictions have repeatedly ended up being overblown, if not downright inaccurate.

For instance, saying the avocado is trouble is a surefire way to get the media into a frenzy (and to help restaurants justify $9 pieces of toast), and this time last year people were predicting just that: an avocado shortage. But cut to a year later: Not only are there plenty of avocados to go around, but there actually may be too many avocados. Prices are plummeting.

The news comes from California-based producer Calavo Growers who had some explaining to do during a recent earnings report. “During our fiscal fourth quarter, the industry experienced prolonged and meaningful downward pricing pressure on per-unit avocado prices,” said Calavo’s Chief Executive Lee Cole. “This was a unique situation, reflective of an avocado industry rapidly transitioning to annual consumption well in excess of two billion pounds.”

Despite California’s continued drought, which was predicted to be part of the avocado’s downfall, Calavo said it packed 22 percent more avocados this past quarter than they did a year ago. Instead of demand driving up prices, it sounds like demand is actually driving up supply. And according to MarketWatch, Cole predicts this trend to continue throughout 2016.

True, I guess getting caught up in the hype over cheap avocados is as shortsighted as worrying every time someone predicts a shortage. But now is not the time for rational thought. Now is the time for never ending supplies of dirt-cheap guacamole. Guactober Fest at my place!

For avocado inspiration try these 5 embarrassingly easy avocado recipes.